US-Led Trans-Pacific Partnership May Have Chinese Competition

The Obama administration is looking to finalize its much-anticipated Trans-Pacific Partnership, an 11-nation regional trade agreement that, if successful, will expand American exports and economic influence in Asia.

As we noted previously, the TPP is still facing many challenges as negotiations draw to a close. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations recently unveiled plans for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which would be the world’s largest-ever regional trade agreement.

The partnership includes ASEAN’s 10 member states as well as Australia, China, Japan, India, South Korea and New Zealand. Its creation raises several questions for the future of the TPP – namely, can the US-led agreement thrive alongside Asian-organized, competing trading blocs, especially if those blocs include China and exclude the US?

Some believe that competing pro-China and pro-US treaties may escalate current economic tension in the region, rather than alleviating it. The potential conflict also presents an especially tricky situation for Australia, whom the US sees as playing a key role in nurturing American economic activity in Asia.

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China’s Online Censorship May Soon Be Considered as a “Barrier to Trade”

From the strict controls and highly filtered content, including the famously obvious “Tianneman Square” Google search, to the blocking of hugely popular social networking sites, namely Facebook, China’s online censorship has always been viewed as an unjust and uncompromising policy that is likely only to get stricter. However, the advent of social networking popularity and the exponential growth of online transactions (which are often international) has boosted the internet’s business value to an unprecedented level, and sparked a discussion of whether China’s censorship should be taken more seriously.

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In BusinessWeek’s March 9 article, China’s Facebook Syndrome, the authors discuss the idea that China’s blocking of the social networking site could be viewed as a barrier to trade.

Since 2009, China has blocked Facebook, the world’s largest online social media network. This year, Renren, one of China’s largest social networks, plans to raise $500 million on the New York Stock Exchange (NYX). So a Chinese social network can tap U.S. capital markets, but American social networks can’t tap Chinese consumer markets. Does that sound fair?

According to the article, the idea of internet censorship as a barrier to trade has been floating around since 2007 when the global director of Google presented it to the Office of the US Trade Representative, but has been treated similar to walking on eggshells due to China’s economic position, the legal reach World Trade Organization (WTO) trade laws towards censorship, and the unprecedented matter of the situation. The trend is inching towards de-censorship and openness of the internet though; for example a nonbinding clause protecting “cross-border information flows” is a part of the still-unratified Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and stricter language regarding censorship is being “considered” for other future Trade Agreements. Whether this trend becomes actualized with China, however, is up in the air.

Here’s the problem: While the USTR has been quietly inserting language in trade agreements, perhaps to cite as precedent in some future negotiation with China, it’s playing a game of inches. China’s Internet users, some 400 million-strong, make up the largest Internet market in the world, one U.S. social networks are largely prevented from competing in. But if the U.S. moved more aggressively and brought a trade case before the World Trade Organization, it could alienate China, disrupting trade in other products—and the outcome would be uncertain. “They are definitely trade barriers,” says James Bacchus, a lawyer at Greenberg Traurig in Washington and a former WTO apellate judge. “Whether they are illegal under WTO trade laws is another matter.”

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Baidu – Google’s Chinese Nemesis

There is also an issue of fairness backing opponents of Chinese censorship. At the same time as Facebook is banned in China, several comparable social networking sites, including the Chinese version of YouTube which is also banned, are listed on US stock exchanges. Renren, a Facebook-esque social network which may not even exist without censorship, plans to raise $500 million on the NYSE this year. Consider if Facebook were exporting corn or wheat, the issue of a barrier to trade would be much louder.

Part of the reason the issue is not headlining is due to the lack of pressure which has been put on lawmakers. While Google has put up a fuss about China’s online censorship, it also acknowledges that the issue is about human rights, first. Google spokeswoman, Niki Fenwick, admits “When a government blocks the Internet, it is the equivalent of a customs official stopping goods at the border”. The wording of the standard WTO admission agreement, which China signed, does not help either, as it includes exceptions for enforcing national values and protecting public safety. Any push towards a barrier to entry ruling would be met with an argument that censorship protects China’s citizens from elicit material such as pornography.

The effort to promote visibility and open trade lanes between Chinese and international web users will not be resolved fully or quickly, at least not anytime soon. However, gradual inch-by-inch progress could be made to loosen policies and laws.  Lee-Makiyama, of the European Centre for International Political Economy, states that while “the WTO cannot get rid of censorship”, it could compel China to abandoned its worst practices, namely the lack of transparency of censorship policies. With knowledge of China’s notoriously socialistic politics and economic power, United States lawmakers looking to at the very least make more of an issue of this must apply necessary focus and pressure to the opening of the internet worldwide.

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In the Works: China, S. Korea, Japan Trade Agreement

According to CCTV, China, South Korea, and Japan are meeting to investigate the possibility of a trilateral trade agreement between the Asian economic powerhouses.

According to a report by the ministry, South Korea will launch the joint study, in which government officials, scholars and business representatives from all three countries will participate.The report says that along with the trilateral agreement, the country will continue to push for settling separate bilateral trade agreements with China and Japan.

South Korea has been seeking more economic integration within the Northeast Asia by creating favorable conditions for free trade agreements.

Read the (very brief) complete article.

Analysis: Call South Korea duty-free butter, because it is on a trade agreement roll!

South Korea has been racking up trade agreements with the EU, India, New Zealand, and Canada recently. That is in addition to its existing agreements with Singapore, EFTA, ASEAN, Chile, and Peru.

South Korea is strongly expanding its competitive reach in the global market by offering its already competitive products (specifically cars and electronics) at what will be an even lower cost in markets like the EU, Canada, and New Zealand.

The possibility of this agreement creates even more pressure on the standstill KORUS trade agreement, which is awaiting approval by US Congress. If American products are to remain competitively priced in countries such as China, Korea, and Japan, passing KORUS will be key to their success.

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Mexico Seeks Trade Agreements with China, India

WSJ/Dow Jones Newswire reports that Mexico is seeking free trade with China and India. The entire article is below.

Mexico is seeking to broaden the range of countries with which it has trade agreements to include China and India, the country’s director of economic planning, Miguel Messmacher, said Friday.

Speaking at the Economist Emerging Markets Summit in London, Messmacher said Mexico has already reached agreement with Brazil to establish free trade links, but is now seeking to develop more such arrangements.

Talk about keeping it short & sweet!

If you’d like to see the article in WSJ’s font please visit: “Mexico Seeks Trade Agreements with China, India

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Trilateral Trade Agreement: Brazil, India, S. Africa

And you thought a bilateral trade agreement was difficult to negotiate!

South Africa, Brazil, and India have announced a plan to increase trade between the three nations to U$25 Billion by 2015. Currently, they have an annual trade of U$ 10 billion.

The announcement was made at the 6th Annual IBSA (India Brazil, South Africa) Ministerial Commission Meeting. IBSA has a combined GDP of $3.2 trillion and a combined population of 1.4 billion people.

For additional information, visit China View.

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Top Ten Tips to Tame Import Landed Costs

Our recent post on the compelling argument that Former President Vicente Fox made on near-sourcing from Mexico really begs the question: are you getting what you expected from China sourcing? It seems that a decision to source from China is as easy as recommending SAP for IT (or IBM for just about anything else). However, a recent study by the industry analyst Aberdeen Group reported that the total landed cost of goods – product cost and all related supply chain costs including transportation, duties, and taxes – varied from 2% to 10% for half of the 400 companies surveyed that import from China.

Now that the decision is made and operational, read on to discover ten strategies that can help your company tame those landed cost over-runs.

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